The Third Eye News, events and happenings

That makes Handbags Replica Farid wonder whether trying to

July 12, 2013

Computers may not improve predictions of repeat criminals

Replica Handbags In courtrooms around the United States, computer programs give testimony that helps decide who gets locked up and who walks free. Replica Handbags

aaa replica designer handbags These algorithms are criminal recidivism predictors, which use personal information about defendants like family and employment history to assess that person’s likelihood of committing future crimes. Judges factor Designer Fake Bags those risk ratings into verdicts on everything from bail to sentencing to parole. aaa replica designer handbags

Handbags Replica But investigations wholesale replica designer handbags into algorithms’ treatment of Handbags Replica different demographics have revealed how. Now there’s reason to doubt whether crime prediction algorithms can even boast superhuman accuracy. Handbags Replica

Fake Designer Bags Computer scientist Julia Dressel recently analyzed high quality replica handbags the prognostic Replica Handbags powers of Replica Bags a widely used aaa replica designer handbags recidivism predictor called COMPAS. This software determines whether a defendant will commit a crime within the next two years based on six defendant features although what features COMPAS uses and how it weighs various data points is a Replica Designer Handbags trade secret. Fake Designer Bags

purse replica handbags Dressel, who conducted the study while at Dartmouth College, recruited 400 online volunteers, who were presumed to have little or no criminal justice expertise. The researchers split their volunteers into groups of 20, and had each group read descriptions of 50 defendants. Using such information as sex, age and criminal history, the volunteers predicted which Wholesale Replica Bags defendants Replica Designer Handbags would reoffend. purse replica handbags

Wholesale Replica Bags A Replica Bags Wholesale comparison of the volunteers’ answers with COMPAS’ Replica Designer Handbags predictions for the same 1,000 defendants found that both were about 65 percent accurate. “You have this commercial software that’s been used for years in courts around Handbags Replica the country how is it that we just asked a bunch of people online and replica handbags online [the results] are the same?” Wholesale Replica Bags

KnockOff Handbags There’s nothing inherently wrong with aaa replica designer handbags an replica Purse algorithm Designer Fake Bags that only performs as well as its human counterparts. But this finding, reported online January 17 in Science Advances, should be a wake up Replica Bags Wholesale call to law Replica Designer Handbags enforcement personnel who Replica Handbags might have “a Replica Bags disproportionate Designer Replica Bags confidence in these algorithms,” Farid says. KnockOff Handbags

Replica Bags “Imagine you’re a judge, and I tell you I have this highly secretive, highly proprietary, expensive software built on big data, and it says replica handbags china the person standing in front of you is high risk” for reoffending, he says. “The judge would be like, ‘Yeah, that sounds quite serious.’ But now imagine if I tell you, ‘Twenty people online said this person is high cheap replica handbags risk.’ I imagine you’d weigh that information a little bit differently.” Maybe these predictions deserve the same amount of consideration. Replica Bags

replica Purse Judges could get some better perspective on recidivism predictors’ performance if the Department of Justice or National Institute for Standards and KnockOff Handbags Technology established a vetting process for new software, Farid says. Researchers could test computer programs Fake Designer Bags against a large, diverse dataset of defendants and OK algorithms for courtroom use wholesale replica designer handbags only if they get a passing grade for prediction. replica Purse

high quality replica handbags Farid has his doubts that computers can show much improvement. He and Dressel built KnockOff Handbags several Designer Fake Bags simple and complex algorithms that used two to seven defendant features to predict recidivism. Like COMPAS, all their algorithms maxed out at about D level accuracy. That makes Handbags Replica Farid wonder whether trying to predict crime with anything approaching A+ accuracy is an exercise in futility. high quality replica handbags

Replica Designer Handbags “Maybe there will be huge breakthroughs in data analytics and machine learning over the next decade that [help us] do this with a high Replica Handbags accuracy,” he says. But until then, humans may make better crime predictors than machines. After all, if a bunch of average Joe online recruits gave COMPAS a run for its money, criminal justice experts like social Replica Bags workers, parole officers, judges or detectives might just outperform the algorithm. Replica Designer Handbags

Replica Bags Wholesale Even if computer programs aren’t used to predict recidivism, that doesn’t mean they can’t aid law enforcement, says Chelsea Barabas, a media researcher at MIT. Instead of creating algorithms Replica Designer Handbags that use historic crime data to predict who will reoffend, purse replica handbags programmers could build algorithms that examine crime data to find trends that inform criminal justice research, Barabas and colleagues argue in a paper to be presented at the KnockOff Handbags Conference on Fairness, Accountability and Transparency in New York City on February 23. Replica Bags Wholesale

replica handbags china For instance, if a computer program studies crime statistics and discovers replica bags that certain features like a person’s age or socioeconomic status are Designer Fake Bags highly related to repeated criminal activity, replica handbags china that could inspire new studies to see whether certain interventions, like therapy, help Designer Replica Bags those at risk groups. In this way, Replica Bags computer programs would do one better than just predict Replica Bags future crime. They could help prevent it replica handbags china.

Subscribe to our Newsletter!

Get occasional updates about West 3rd St. news, events, and promotions.

Your information will never be shared with any third party.